Slippery Slope Fallacy
Example, because US and China keeps slapping tariffs, Indonesia's currency is doomed.
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This article discusses a basic logical error that I have seen to be increasingly more common. We make this logical error when discussing with peers and make our beliefs (that are not proven to be true) appear as facts. In my view, identifying beliefs that are separated from knowledge is a useful skill in various aspects of life and it is a sign that an individual has become more thoughtful overall.
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The advent of telecommunication devices and internet has allowed us to consume copious amount of information from various sources. Information is now very widespread that it is poising questions regarding the necessity of a university education alone. More commonly, WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and the likes are given nicknames university.
For example, how do you know that Creatine is good for muscle development? Answer: YouTube University.
Or how do you know that UK is experiencing a political turmoil between their two factions? Answer: Random political observer that I saw on a family WhatsApp group.
You get the point.
As a result of this voluminous information, time for us to distinguish between knowledge and belief becomes more and more scarce. Verifying truthfulness and logically soundness of knowledge is no longer a trivial task.
What stems from this difficulty though?
Opinion: I think this stems from beliefs that disguises as facts that is supported by a common logical fallacy in philosophy, called “Slippery Slope Fallacy”.
To break it down:
What: Belief disguises as facts.
How: Slippery slope fallacy.
Before we define what is slippery slope. Let’s give a fun example first so that you don’t doze off.
“If we allow gay marriage, people will be marrying their pets!”
Why? ”If we allow gay marriage” —> “people might start adopting pets to commemorate the occasion” —> “increase in pet adoption rates among newlywed couples” —> “pet grooming and fashion industries will boom” —> “To keep up with the trend, pet groomers might begin offering bespoke wedding attire for pets” —> “enterprising individuals will start to market high-end, designer pet weddings, complete with expensive venues and elaborate ceremonies” —> “people will be marrying their pets as a way of life.”
Disclaimer: this is an example of a slippery slope fallacy in action and not to be construed as my opinion regarding gay marriages.
From the exaggerated example above, I think you could have an intuitive grasp of a slippery slope being a logical error that an action leads to a chain of events without providing any evidence for such a chain.
So a cause X can have any result Y. Provided that the intermediary link between X and Y are beliefs instead of a fact that is supported by proper evidence.
Family reunion often is a good occasion to collect some of these logical fallacies
Especially when we have so many conversation starters at the dinner table. For example:
Trump Tariffs necessitates economic (trade) agreement between U.S. and China. If there is no agreement. Then Indonesia’s currency is doomed.
Why?
U.S. and China no deal so U.S. will slap tariffs on China
China reduces exports to the U.S.
China slows down as the factory shuts down
Indonesia cannot export coal to China
No demand for Rupiah because Indonesia’s exports will go down
Indonesia currency is doomed
This statement is mentioned by a fairly intelligent and respectable member of the family. Of course, because that member is aware of the economic activities of Indonesia, they are well versed with global affairs and they know about the importance of manufacturing as an economic driver for China.
If you are another family member who’s grappling with terms like export imports, trade deficits and balance of payments. The statement and causal relations would make a lot of sense. You yourself will also be worried:
Should I be buying USD then?
Should I pull out my Rupiah denominated investment in this uncertain times?
What’s a safe investment vehicle for me at this juncture?
Oh no oh no…. Is social learning ideal?
There are other slippery slopes like:
the launch of sovereign wealth fund in Indonesia eventually would cause the country to go bankrupt.
tariffs in the US will eventually cause foreign investments in Indonesia to pull out entirely
and many more
But let’s turn our attention to the first slippery slope fallacy regarding Indonesia’s currency being doomed if there’s no trade deal between US and China.